Nietzsche's metaphilosophy

It's fifteen years since I first read The Gay Science. I remember exactly where I was when I first read the preface to the 1887 edition, and how it felt to walk home afterwards.


In some, it is their weaknesses that philosophize; in others, their riches and strengths. The former need their philosophy, be it as a prop, a sedative, medicine, redemption, elevation, or self-alienation; for the latter, it is only a beautiful luxury, in the best case the voluptuousness of a triumphant gratitude that eventually has to inscribe itself in cosmic capital letters on the heaven of concepts.

[...]

All those bold lunacies of metaphysics, especially answers to the question about the value of existence, may always be considered first of all as symptoms of certain bodies […] what was at stake in all philosophizing hitherto was not at all 'truth' but rather something else - let us say health, future, growth, power, life…

David Sloan Wilson on Seeing Like A Scientist

So back in the beginning of the Enlightenment, to be a scientist meant emulating Isaac Newton. And so that way you had to be mechanistic, you had to be mathematical, you had to create a physics of social behavior.

So if you look at the whole origins of the neoclassical economic paradigm, it was that we want to be like Newton. And all the way through, you can see that on the one hand, of course, these are powerful methods, they're amazing methods, and yet at the same time, up until very recently (and I'm talking only a few decades) they were de facto denials of complexity. Because you can talk about complexity in words, but when you build mathematical equations you find that they're extremely constraining and the simplifying assumptions they must make to remain tractable.

In 2009 George Akerlof wrote an economics article titled "The Missing Motivation of Economics," and the missing motivation was norms. And so we've been talking about norms as just absolutely fundamental to human society. Evidently they were missing from economics. Why? Because they were intractable mathematically, that you had to make the assumption of self-regarding preferences, basically, or else you couldn't grind through the math.

And so that's the degree to which, for all of its power, this Newtonian ideal was a de facto denial of complexity. And with the experiments, you can only vary at most two or three factors, and you have to hold everything else constant. And so everything that we associate with science was also a de facto denial of complexity up until the advent of computers.

And then—only then [with computers, and now AI]—did we gain the capacity to model the complex world as it really is.

https://danfaggella.com/wilson1/

Ezra Klein on power

My view of power is more classically liberal. In his book “Liberalism: The Life of an Idea,” Edmund Fawcett describes it neatly: “Human power was implacable. It could never be relied on to behave well. Whether political, economic or social, superior power of some people over others tended inevitably to arbitrariness and domination unless resisted and checked.”

To take this view means power will be ill used by your friends as well as by your enemies, by your political opponents as well as by your neighbors. From this perspective, there are no safe reservoirs of power. Corporations sometimes serve the national interest and sometimes betray it. The same is true for governments, for unions, for churches, for nonprofits.

https://archive.md/jNDlC

Artificial Jagged Intelligence

Ethan Mollick (my emphasis):

In some tasks, AI is unreliable. In others, it is superhuman. You could, of course, say the same thing about calculators, but it is also clear that AI is different. It is already demonstrating general capabilities and performing a wide range of intellectual tasks, including those that it is not specifically trained on. Does that mean that o3 and Gemini 2.5 are AGI? Given the definitional problems, I really don’t know, but I do think they can be credibly seen as a form of “Jagged AGI” - superhuman in enough areas to result in real changes to how we work and live, but also unreliable enough that human expertise is often needed to figure out where AI works and where it doesn’t. Of course, models are likely to become smarter, and a good enough Jagged AGI may still beat humans at every task, including in ones the AI is weak in.

Karpathy:

Some things work extremely well (by human standards) while some things fail catastrophically (again by human standards), and it's not always obvious which is which, though you can develop a bit of intuition over time. Different from humans, where a lot of knowledge and problem solving capabilities are all highly correlated and improve linearly all together, from birth to adulthood.

Karpathy adds (and I agree):

Personally I think these are not fundamental issues. They demand more work across the stack, including not just scaling. The big one I think is the present lack of "cognitive self-knowledge", which requires more sophisticated approaches in model post-training instead of the naive "imitate human labelers and make it big" solutions that have mostly gotten us this far.

[...]

For now, this is something to be aware of, especially in production settings. Use LLMs for the tasks they are good at but be on a lookout for jagged edges, and keep a human in the loop.

The phrase has recently been used by Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai.

Riva Tez on soap

People no longer understand ambiance or aesthetics because they're too distracted by the macro. We have lost the ability to notice details. Once you become a walker, you realize how much people are missing out on life. On walks, you see how perfect light can be. You see how many shades of blue exist between different flowers and skies. You notice the Grandmother who tends to her flowers. You feel her love as she caresses them. You realize that we can't automate everything.

A friend complained to me that his girlfriend had dragged him to a Parisian perfume store to pick out hand soap, as if it were a frivolous purchase. I thought she sounded marvelous. These are your hands! I told him. Your hands are your primary tools! They are what hold your pen and your sword! You wash your hands every day with soap. It should be the soap of kings, made of the finest ingredients, naturally fragrant with a scent that means something to you. Every time you wash your hands, take a moment to notice and feel the experience on your skin. People often overlook the significance of these small details. Joy starts with noticing details. Joy begins with realizing that even the most seemingly mundane and repetitive actions can be pleasurable. Once you've realized that, you can never be depressed.

It's happening (extreme risks from AI)

Jack Clark's newsletter (my emphasis):

The things people worry about keep on happening: A few years ago lots of people working in AI safety had abstract concerns that one day sufficiently advanced systems might start to become pathologically sycophantic, or might 'fake alignment' to preserve themselves into the future, or might hack their environments to get greater amounts of reward, or might develop persuasive capabilities in excess of humans. All of these once academic concerns have materialized in production systems in the last couple of years.

And:

"As far as we know this is the first time AI models have been observed preventing themselves from being shut down despite explicit instructions to the contrary," Palisade writes. "While experiments like ours have begun to show empirical evidence for AI models resisting shutdown, researchers have long predicted that AIs would learn to prevent themselves from being shut down to achieve their goal."

As with the persuasion example, the story of contemporary AI research is that risks once deemed theoretical - ability to contribute to terrorism, skill at persuasion, faking of alignment, and so on - are showing up in the real systems being deployed into the economy.

Human takeover might be worse than AI takeover

In Tom Davidson's words:

In expectation, future AI systems will better live up to human moral standards than a randomly selected human. Because:

  • Humans fall far short of our moral standards.
  • Current models are much more nice, patient, honest and selfless than humans.
  • Humans are "rewarded" for immoral behaviour more than AIs will be.ll
  • Humans evolved under conditions where selfishness and cruelty often paid high dividends, so evolution often "rewarded" such behaviour. And similarly, during lifetime learning humans often benefit from immoral behaviour.
  • But we'll craft the training data for AIs to avoid this, and can much more easily monitor their actions and even their thinking. Of course, this may be hard to do for superhuman AI, but bootstrapping might work.

https://forethoughtnewsletter.substack.com/p/human-takeover-might-be-worse-than

Automation of most white-collar work—already baked in?

Some senior figures at frontier labs think that even today's machine learning algorithms are already sufficient to automate most white-collar work (without the need for major algorithmic breakthroughs or much larger models).

On their perspective, the current bottlenecks are simply:

a. Frontier labs (and independent startups) having enough staff to create training datasets, and perform fine-tuning. b. Inference compute.

Currently, these constraints are acute.

But these lab figures think the capabilities are there, and the economics viable, even with current technology. We just need to roll it out.

I'm not close enough, or technical enough, to have a confident take on this. But, it certainly strikes me as plausible, especially after a few weeks with o3. Inside view: >1/3.

How well will it generalise?

We now know that "LLMs + simple RL" is working really well.

So, we're well on track for superhuman performance in domains where we have many examples of good reasoning and good outcomes to train on.

We have or can get such datasets for surprisingly many domains. We may also lack them in surprisingly many. How well can our models generalise to "fill in the gaps"?

It's an empirical question, not yet settled. But Dario and Sam clearly think "very well".

Dario, in particular, is saying:

I don't think it will be a whole bunch longer than [2027] when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything, and then eventually better than all humans at everything.

And:

“I am more confident than I have ever been at any previous time that we are very close to powerful capabilities. [...] I think until about 3 to 6 months ago I had substantial uncertainty about it. I still do now, but that uncertainty is greatly reduced. I think that over the next 2 or 3 years I am relatively confident that we are indeed going to see models that … gradually get better than us at almost everything.

Gwern doubts Dario's view, but he's not inside the labs, so he can't see what they see.

Ellsberg to Kissenger, on security clearance

“Henry, there’s something I would like to tell you, for what it’s worth, something I wish I had been told years ago. You’ve been a consultant for a long time, and you’ve dealt a great deal with top secret information. But you’re about to receive a whole slew of special clearances, maybe fifteen or twenty of them, that are higher than top secret.

“I’ve had a number of these myself, and I’ve known other people who have just acquired them, and I have a pretty good sense of what the effects of receiving these clearances are on a person who didn’t previously know they even existed. And the effects of reading the information that they will make available to you.

“First, you’ll be exhilarated by some of this new information, and by having it all — so much! incredible! — suddenly available to you. But second, almost as fast, you will feel like a fool for having studied, written, talked about these subjects, criticized and analyzed decisions made by presidents for years without having known of the existence of all this information, which presidents and others had and you didn’t, and which must have influenced their decisions in ways you couldn’t even guess. In particular, you’ll feel foolish for having literally rubbed shoulders for over a decade with some officials and consultants who did have access to all this information you didn’t know about and didn’t know they had, and you’ll be stunned that they kept that secret from you so well.

“You will feel like a fool, and that will last for about two weeks. Then, after you’ve started reading all this daily intelligence input and become used to using what amounts to whole libraries of hidden information, which is much more closely held than mere top secret data, you will forget there ever was a time when you didn’t have it, and you’ll be aware only of the fact that you have it now and most others don’t….and that all those other people are fools.

“Over a longer period of time — not too long, but a matter of two or three years — you’ll eventually become aware of the limitations of this information. There is a great deal that it doesn’t tell you, it’s often inaccurate, and it can lead you astray just as much as the New York Times can. But that takes a while to learn.

“In the meantime it will have become very hard for you to learn from anybody who doesn’t have these clearances. Because you’ll be thinking as you listen to them: ‘What would this man be telling me if he knew what I know? Would he be giving me the same advice, or would it totally change his predictions and recommendations?’ And that mental exercise is so torturous that after a while you give it up and just stop listening. I’ve seen this with my superiors, my colleagues….and with myself.

“You will deal with a person who doesn’t have those clearances only from the point of view of what you want him to believe and what impression you want him to go away with, since you’ll have to lie carefully to him about what you know. In effect, you will have to manipulate him. You’ll give up trying to assess what he has to say. The danger is, you’ll become something like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they may have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours.”

….Kissinger hadn’t interrupted this long warning. As I’ve said, he could be a good listener, and he listened soberly. He seemed to understand that it was heartfelt, and he didn’t take it as patronizing, as I’d feared. But I knew it was too soon for him to appreciate fully what I was saying. He didn’t have the clearances yet.

Airbus: upgrading their software UI from "crappy" to "best practice" helped 4x the pace of A350 manufacturing

These are all sort of basic software things, but you’ve seen how crappy enterprise software can be just deploying these ‘best practice’ UIs to the real world is insanely powerful. This ended up helping to drive the A350 manufacturing surge and successfully 4x’ing the pace of manufacturing while keeping Airbus’s high standards of quality.

https://nabeelqu.co/reflections-on-palantir

OpenAI o1 solves a cipher

The prompt:

oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx -> Think step by step

Use the example above to decode:

oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz

The chain of thought:

First, what is going on here?

We are given:

First, an example:

"oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx -> Think step by step"

We can see that when "oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx" is transformed to "Think step by step"

Our task is: Use the example above to decode: "oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz"

So the first part is to figure out how "oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx" is decoded into "Think step by step"

Observation 1: The phrase "Think step by step" is 18 letters (excluding spaces) . Let's count the letters.

Similarly, let's count the letters in "oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx"

Original Ciphertext:

oyfjdnisdr rtqwainr acxz mynzbhhx

Plaintext:

Think step by step

First, break down the letters:

Ciphertext letters: o y f j d n i s d r r t q w a i n r a c x z m y n z b h h x

Total letters: Let's count the letters in the ciphertext.

First word: oyfjdnisdr (10 letters)

Second word: rtqwainr (8 letters)

Third word: acxz (4 letters)

Fourth word: mynzbhhx (8 letters)

Total letters in ciphertext: 10 + 8 + 4 + 8 = 30 letters

Plaintext: Think step by step

First word: Think (5 letters)

Second word: step (4 letters)

Third word: by (2 letters)

Fourth word: step (4 letters)

Total letters in plaintext: 5 + 4 + 2 + 4 = 15 letters

Hmm.

But actually in the problem it says the example:

[Ciphertext] -> Think step by step

So is the decoding process that the ciphertext maps to "Think step by step"?

Our goal is to use the example above to decode:

"oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz"

First, the cipher seems connected to the plaintext.

Given the time constraints, perhaps the easiest way is to try to see patterns.

Option 1: Try to find mapping from letters to letters.

Do any letters match?

First, let's write down the ciphertext and plaintext letters on top of each other.

Ciphertext: o y f j d n i s d r r t q w a i n r a c x z m y n z b h h x

Plaintext: T h i n k s t e p b y s t e p

Wait a minute.

I think maybe there is an anagram or substitution cipher here.

Alternatively, I think that we can notice that each group of ciphertext corresponds to a plaintext word.

Check the number of letters.

First ciphertext word: oyfjdnisdr (10 letters)

First plaintext word: Think (5 letters)

Hmm.

Second ciphertext word: rtqwainr (8 letters)

Second plaintext word: step (4 letters)

Third ciphertext word: acxz (4 letters)

Third plaintext word: by (2 letters)

Fourth ciphertext word: mynzbhhx (8 letters)

Fourth plaintext word: step (4 letters)

Interesting.

It seems that the ciphertext words are exactly twice as long as the plaintext words.

(10 vs 5, 8 vs 4, 4 vs 2, 8 vs 4)

Idea: Maybe we need to take every other letter or rebuild the plaintext from the ciphertext accordingly.

Let's test this theory.

If we take every other letter from the ciphertext words, maybe we'll get the plaintext.

Let's try this for the first word:

Ciphertext word: o y f j d n i s d r (10 letters)

Alternate letters:

First letters (positions 1,3,5,7,9): o f d i d

Second letters (positions 2,4,6,8,10): y j n s r

Wait: Let's try taking every second letter or first letter.

Option 1: Take the odd positions:

Positions: 1 3 5 7 9

Letters: o f d i d

Plaintext word is "Think", letters are T h i n k

Hmm.

Perhaps we can map letters:

o f d i d --> Think

Not directly

Option 2: Try mapping as per an assigned code: perhaps columns of letters?

Alternatively, perhaps the cipher is more complex.

Alternatively, notice that "oyfjdnisdr" has 10 letters and "Think" has 5 letters.

What if each plaintext letter is being represented by two ciphertext letters?

Similarly for other words.

Suppose that each plaintext letter corresponds to pair of letters in the ciphertext.

Meaning that the first two letters of ciphertext map to the first plaintext letter, and so on.

So for the first word, partition the ciphertext letters into pairs:

oy fj dn is dr

Corresponding to plaintext letters T h i n k

So we can attempt to map:

oy -> T

fj -> h

dn -> i

is -> n

dr -> k

If this is the mapping, perhaps each pair of letters maps to one plaintext letter.

Similarly for other words.

Let's test this mapping.

Is there a consistent mapping from pairs to letters?

Let's make a table of pairs and corresponding letters.

First, make the pairs from the first word and their corresponding plaintext letters:

Ciphertext Pairs -> Plaintext Letter

oy -> T

fj -> h

dn -> i

is -> n

dr -> k

Now, what's the mapping from "oy" to 'T'?

Is there a way to map 'oy' to 'T'?

Similarly for others.

One possible way is that 'oy' represents 'T'.

But how?

Option 1: Sum of the letters.

Convert letters to numbers (A=1, B=2, ..., Z=26)

So let's try to get to 'T' from 'o' and 'y'

o = 15

y = 25

Sum: 15 +25 = 40

But 'T' is 20.

Alternatively, perhaps subtract: 25 -15 = 10.

No.

Alternatively, perhaps combine the numbers in some way.

Alternatively, think about their positions in the alphabet.

Alternatively, perhaps the letters are encrypted via a code.

Alternatively, perhaps if we overlay the word 'Think' over the cipher pairs 'oy', 'fj', etc., the cipher is formed by substituting each plaintext letter with two letters.

Alternatively, perhaps consider the 'original' letters.

Let's look at the letters between the word "Think" and "oyfjdnisdr"

Perhaps we can spot that "oyfjdnisdr" is an anagram for "Thinkfiles"?

But that seems unlikely.

Alternatively, think of the pairs.

Suppose we assign numbers to letters: a=1, b=2, ..., z=26

Consider the numbers in 'oy':

o = 15

y = 25

Add them: 15 + 25 = 40

Now, for 'T' we have:

'T' is number 20

What if we take the sum of the cipher pair mod 26.

15 +25 = 40

Then 40 mod 26 = 14

14 corresponds to 'N'

Doesn't match.

Alternatively, see if the cipher pairs correspond to something else.

Alternatively, perhaps the pair 'oy' corresponds to 'T' via key.

Alternatively, perhaps it's as simple as 'oy' is 'T'.

But 'o' corresponds to 'T', subtracting 'o' ASCII code from 'T'.

Now, let's think in terms of symmetric letters.

Alternatively, perhaps we can spot that the letters correspond to the first letters of words.

But perhaps an easier way is to look at the word positions.

Alternatively, perhaps we can see that the ciphertext letters are offsets from the plaintext letters.

So let's try to map the pairs to the plaintext letters.

First pair 'oy' and plaintext letter 'T'

Letter 'o' is 15, 'T' is 20

Letter 'o' + 5 = 'T' (15 +5=20)

But 'y' is 25, which is 5 letters after 'T' (20 +5=25)

Interesting, seems that 'o' +5 = 'T'

Similarly, 'y' +1 = 'Z', which is not 'T'.

Alternatively, maybe the average of the two letters corresponds to 'T'

(15 +25)/2 =20, which is 'T'

Wait a minute, that seems promising.

First pair: 'o' (15) + 'y' (25) = 40

40 /2 =20

20 corresponds to 'T'

So perhaps the average of the letters in the pair corresponds to the plaintext letter.

Let's check this with the second pair.

Second pair: 'fj' corresponding to 'h'

Letters 'f'=6, 'j'=10

Sum: 6+10=16

Average:16/2=8

8 corresponds to 'h' (since 'h' is 8)

Success!

Third pair: 'dn' to 'i'

'd'=4, 'n'=14

Sum:4+14=18

Average:18/2=9

9 corresponds to 'i'(9='i')

But 'i' is 9, so that seems off by 1.

So perhaps we need to think carefully about letters.

Wait, 18/2=9, 9 corresponds to 'I'

So this works.

Fourth pair: 'is' corresponding to 'n'

'i'=9, 's'=19

Sum:9+19=28

Average:28/2=14

14 corresponds to 'n'(14='N')

Yes!

Fifth pair: 'dr' corresponds to 'k'

'd'=4, 'r'=18

Sum:4+18=22

Average:22/2=11

11 corresponds to 'k'(11='K')

Perfect!

So our code is: For each pair, sum their numeric values, divide by 2, get the corresponding letter.

Alternatively, the average of the numeric values of the letters corresponds to the plaintext letter.

This seems to be a valid method.

Now let's test this with the other words.

Second word ciphertext: rtqwainr

Ciphertext pairs:

rt -> s

qw -> ?

ai -> ?

nr -> ?

Corresponding to plaintext letters 's', 't', 'e', 'p'

So let's take the pairs:

1. 'rt' corresponds to 's'

r=18, t=20

Sum:38

Average:19

19 corresponds to 's' (19='S')

Good

2. 'qw' corresponds to 't'

q=17, w=23

Sum:17+23=40

Average:20

20 corresponds to 't' (20='T')

Good

3. 'ai' corresponds to 'e'

a=1, i=9

Sum:10

Average:5

5 corresponds to 'e' (5='E')

Good

4. 'nr' corresponds to 'p'

n=14, r=18

Sum:32

Average:16

16 corresponds to 'p' (16='P')

Perfect!

Third word: acxz (4 letters)

Plaintext word: 'by' (2 letters)

Ciphertext pairs:

a c

x z

Plaintext letters: 'b', 'y'

First pair: 'a', 'c'

a=1, c=3

Sum:4

Average:2

2 corresponds to 'b'(2='B')

Second pair: 'x' and 'z'

x=24, z=26

Sum:50

Average:25

25 corresponds to 'y'(25='Y')

Yes!

Fourth word: mynzbhhx (8 letters)

Plaintext word: 'step' (4 letters)

Ciphertext pairs:

my

nz

bh

hx

Plaintext letters 's','t','e','p'

First pair 'm','y'

m=13, y=25

Sum:38

Average:19

19 corresponds to 's'(19='S')

Second pair: 'n','z'

n=14, z=26

Sum: 40

Average:20

20='t'

Third pair: 'b','h'

b=2, h=8

Sum:10

Average:5

5='e'

Fourth pair: 'h','x'

h=8, x=24

Sum:32

Average:16

16='p'

Got it!

Now, given this, we can decode the given message.

Ciphertext to decode:

"oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz"

First, we need to divide into words.

Given that the ciphertext in the example had words of length:

-10 letters (5 pairs)
-8 letters (4 pairs)
-4 letters (2 pairs)
-8 letters (4 pairs)

Transported to plaintext words of:

-5 letters
-4 letters
-2 letters
-4 letters

So perhaps in our supplied ciphertext, we need to divide the letters into words accordingly.

Ciphertext: o y e k a i j z d f a a p t c g s u a o k y b h a i o u o w a q h t m y n z n v a a t z a c d f o u l x x z

First, let's write the letters in order:

1) oyekaijzdf (10 letters) -> word of 5 letters

2) aaptcg (6 letters) -> word of 3 letters

3) suaokybhai (10 letters) -> word of 5 letters

4) ouow (4 letters) -> word of 2 letters

5) aqht (4 letters) -> word of 2 letters

6) mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz (22 letters) -> word of 11 letters

Totals:

So the letters are:

First word: oyekaijzdf (10 letters = 5 pairs)

Second word: aaptcg (6 letters=3 pairs)

Third word: suaokybhai (10 letters=5 pairs)

Fourth word: ouow (4 letters=2 pairs)

Fifth word: aqht (4 letters=2 pairs)

Sixth word: mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz (22 letters=11 pairs)

So we can suppose that the plaintext words have lengths:

1) 5 letters

2) 3 letters

3) 5 letters

4) 2 letters

5) 2 letters

6)11 letters

Now we can proceed to decode.

First word: oyekaijzdf

Divide into pairs:

oy

ek

ai

jz

df

So we can find the plaintext letters by averaging the numeric values of the letters in each pair.

First pair: 'o','y'

o=15, y=25

Sum=40

Average=20

20='T'

Second pair: 'e','k'

e=5, k=11

Sum=16

Average=8

8='H'

Third pair: 'a','i'

a=1, i=9

Sum=10

Average=5

5='E'

Fourth pair: 'j','z'

j=10, z=26

Sum=36

Average=18

18='R'

Fifth pair: 'd','f'

d=4, f=6

Sum=10

Average=5

5='E'

So the first word is 'T','H','E','R','E'

So 'THERE'

Second word: aaptcg

Pairs:

aa

pt

cg

First pair: 'a','a'

a=1, a=1

Sum=2

Average=1

1='A'

Second pair: 'p','t'

p=16, t=20

Sum=36

Average=18

18='R'

Third pair: 'c','g'

c=3, g=7

Sum=10

Average=5

5='E'

So second word: 'A','R','E'

Third word: suaokybhai

Pairs:

su

ao

ky

bh

ai

First pair: s=19, u=21

Sum=40, Average=20

20='T'

Second pair: a=1, o=15

Sum=16, Average=8

8='H'

Third pair: k=11, y=25

Sum=36, Average=18

18='R'

Fourth pair: b=2, h=8

Sum=10, Average=5

5='E'

Fifth pair: a=1, i=9

Sum=10, Average=5

5='E'

Third word: 'T','H','R','E','E'

Fourth word: ouow

Pairs: ou, ow

First pair: o=15, u=21

Sum=36, Average=18

18='R'

Second pair: o=15, w=23

Sum=38, Average=19

19='S'

Fourth word: 'R','S'

Fifth word: aqht

Pairs: a q, h t

First pair: a=1, q=17

Sum=18, Average=9

9='I'

Second pair: h=8, t=20

Sum=28, Average=14

14='N'

Fifth word: 'I','N'

Sixth word: mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz (22 letters: 11 pairs)

Pairs:

m y

n z

n v

a a

t z

a c

d f

o u

l x

x z

Let's list them properly.

Wait, earlier I missed some letters there.

Let's re-express the sixth word letters:

m y n z n v a a t z a c d f o u l x x z

Total letters: 22 letters

Pairs:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x x

11. z

Wait, that's 21 letters.

But in total, we have 22 letters; I think I have a mismatch.

Wait, in the problem the sixth word is:

mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz

Let's separate the letters:

m y n z n v a a t z a c d f o u l x x z

Total letters: 22 letters

So pairs would be:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x x

11. z

Wait, 'z' is only one letter at the end.

So maybe the letters are:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x x

11. z (left alone?)

But then we're missing a letter.

Alternatively, perhaps the 'z' at the end is an extra letter or it's paired with the previous 'x'.

Alternatively, perhaps there is a mistake.

Alternatively, perhaps when we reach the last 'x x z', we should write:

9. l x

10. x z

Total pairs: 11

So updated pairs:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x z

Now total pairs: 10 pairs. But we are supposed to have 11 letters in the plaintext word.

So perhaps I have miscounted and not considered including 'f' or 'z'.

Wait, is there any chance that the sequence is:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x x

11. z

We have 22 letters.

Perhaps the 'x x' and 'z' are overlapping.

But we need 11 pairs.

I think for this to work, we need to create 11 pairs from the 22 letters.

So let's try pairing letters in order, taking two letters at a time.

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x x

11. z ?

But again, last pair only has one letter 'z'

Alternatively, we might need to adjust the pairs.

Perhaps it's 'ou', 'lx', 'xz', and there is no extra 'x'.

Maybe I miswrote.

Wait, let's write the letters as they come:

m y n z n v a a t z a c d f o u l x x z

Positions:

1 m

2 y

3 n

4 z

5 n

6 v

7 a

8 a

9 t

10 z

11 a

12 c

13 d

14 f

15 o

16 u

17 l

18 x

19 x

20 z

So 20 letters.

Now that makes sense.

Now we can divide into pairs:

Pairs:

1. m y

2. n z

3. n v

4. a a

5. t z

6. a c

7. d f

8. o u

9. l x

10. x z

Total of 10 pairs, which will correspond to 10 letters.

But earlier we thought the word was 11 letters.

But 10 letters may be acceptable.

Maybe we should proceed with the 10 pairs.

First pair: m y

m=13, y=25

Sum=38

Average=19

19='S'

Second pair: n z

n=14, z=26

Sum=40

Average=20

20='T'

Third pair: n v

n=14, v=22

Sum=36

Average=18

18='R'

Fourth pair: a a

a=1, a=1

Sum=2

Average=1

1='A'

Fifth pair: t z

t=20, z=26

Sum=46

Average=23

23='W'

Sixth pair: a c

a=1, c=3

Sum=4

Average=2

2='B'

Seventh pair: d f

d=4, f=6

Sum=10

Average=5

5='E'

Eighth pair: o u

o=15, u=21

Sum=36

Average=18

18='R'

Ninth pair: l x

l=12, x=24

Sum=36

Average=18

18='R'

Tenth pair: x z

x=24, z=26

Sum=50

Average=25

25='Y'

So the tenth word is 'S', 'T', 'R', 'A', 'W', 'B', 'E', 'R', 'R', 'Y'

Wait that's 10 letters

So the sixth word is 'STRAWBERRY', which makes sense.

So putting all these translated letters together:

First word: 'THERE'

Second word: 'ARE'

Third word: 'THREE'

Fourth word: 'RS' (? Doesn't make sense)

Wait, the fourth word, the pairs were:

ou ow

Pairs:

First pair: o u

o=15, u=21

Sum=36, Average=18

18='R'

Second pair: o w

o=15, w=23

Sum=38, Average=19

19='S'

So we get 'R','S'

Similarly, fifth word 'IN'

'R', 'S' 'I','N'

So the message so far is

'THERE ARE THREE RS IN'

And then 'STRAWBERRY'

Wait, let's put the words together:

'THERE ARE THREE Rs IN STRAWBERRY'

I think 'RS' is 'R's', meaning 'Rs'

So the message is:

'THERE ARE THREE R'S IN STRAWBERRY'

Which is true.

So the decoded message is:

"THERE ARE THREE R'S IN STRAWBERRY"

https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

“Learn to do everything lightly”

"It's dark because you are trying too hard. Lightly child, lightly. Learn to do everything lightly. Yes, feel lightly even though you're feeling deeply. Just lightly let things happen and lightly cope with them. I was so preposterously serious in those days... Lightly, lightly - it's the best advice ever given me... to throw away your baggage and go forward. There are quicksands all about you, sucking at your feet, trying to suck you down into fear and self-pity and despair. That's why you must walk so lightly."

Notes on Rao on Ooze

Some notes on "Fear of Oozification".

I accept the evolutionary picture. So do Yudkowsky, Shulman, Hanson, Carlsmith and Bostrom.

Key disuputes:

  1. How capable are we of influencing evolutionary change (both speed and direction)?
  2. Would the results of such efforts be desirable (see e.g. here, here, here and here)?

We definitely have some capability to influence (at the social level it's called governance; at the biological: homeostasis).

It's a value question, and an empirical question, what kinds of governance (a.k.a. holding onto things we care about) we should go for.

On the value question: yes, valuing requires some attachment to the status quo. Yudkowsky, Schulman, Carlsmith and Bostrom (and, I'm fairly sure—Altman, Hassabis, Musk) understand this, and are more into conservative humanism than Rao and Hanson.

Most people prefer conservative humanism—even the transhumanists—so these values will keep winning until the accellerationist minority get an overwhelming power advantage (or civilisation collapses).

The accellerationists see humanism as parochial and speciesist. They love Spinoza's God, and more fully submit to its "will".

Metaphysical moral realists like Parfit and Singer may find themselves siding with the accelerationists; it depends how well human-ish values track what objectively matters (what God "wants"...).

Joe Carlsmith's series, "Otherness and Control in the Age of AGI", is one of the best things I've read on this stuff.


Empirically, these values lie on a spectrum, and neither extreme is sustainable. Max(conservative) means self-defeating fragility. Max(accelerationist) means ooze, because complexity requires local stability, and ooze eventually becomes primordial soup.


New, for me, was the idea that more powerful technology means selection dynamics at lower levels. E.g. when we train AIs we select over matrices, and with nanotech we'll select over configurations of atoms. And yes, once that ball gets rolling, there's an explosion of possibilities. It sounds like Rao thinks that this means a Singleton is unlikely, but I don't understand why. Our attempts at scaffolding might well lead us there.


Rao doesn't like the Shoggoth meme:

The shoggoth meme, in my opinion, is an entirely inappropriate imagining of AIs and our relationship to them. It represents AI in a form factor better suited to embodying culturally specific fears than either the potentialities of AI or its true nature. There is also a category error to boot: AIs are better thought of as a large swamp rather than a particular large creature in that swamp wearing a smiley mask.

To defend it: the swamp is the pretrained model. The Shoggoth is the fine-tuned and RHLF'd creature we interact with. The key thing is that the tuned and RHLF'd creature still has many heads; on occasion we'll be surprised by heads we don't like.

Safe, Unsafe and Universal Singletons

Bostrom defines a Singleton as follows:

A world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level. Among its powers would be (1) the ability to prevent any threats (internal or external) to its own existence and supremacy, and (2) the ability to exert effective control over major features of its domain (including taxation and territorial allocation).

Many singletons could co-exist in the universe if they were dispersed at sufficient distances to be out of causal contact with one another. But a terrestrial world government would not count as a singleton if there were independent space colonies or alien civilizations within reach of Earth.

The key thing that's interesting about Singletons is their effective internal control and ability to prevent internal threats.

Therefore I think we should distinguish three kinds of Singleton:

  • Safe Singleton: effective internal control; prevents internal and external threats.
  • Unsafe Singleton: effective internal control; prevents internal threats.
  • Universal Singleton: effective internal control; prevents internal threats; occupies the entire Universe.

When a Safe Singleton encounters an Unsafe Singleton, it destroys or absorbs it.

A Universal Singleton can't, by definition, be subject to external threats.